According to the Ministry of Energy of Indonesia, gasoline imports are expected to increase by 54% to 140 mbl, up from 91 mbl in 2020 and exceeding the pre-pandemic import level of 119 mbl in 2019. In addition, Indonesia’s gasoline sales should reach 233 mbl in 2021 (+32% compared to the 176 mbl level of 2020), while domestic gasoline production should increase by 9% from 86 mbl in 2020 to 94 mbl in 2021, close to its 2019 levels.
Indonesia is the largest importer of gasoline in Asia, and the fourth largest worldwide after the United States, Mexico and Nigeria (2019).
According to the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD), Norway’s crude oil production rose by nearly 20% in 2020 to 1.69 mb/d in 2020 and this growing trend should continue over the next few years: crude oil production should increase to 1.76 mb/d in 2021 and 2.07 mb/d in 2025 (+22%), as major oilfields Sverdrup and Castberg will progressively enter production. Total liquids production should increase by more than 19% between 2020 (2 mboe/d) and 2025 (2.37 mb/d). Norway’s natural gas output is expected to increase by 0.5% in 2021 and by 5% over the 2021-2025 period. Gas production should benefit from the Snorre development, one of the largest IOR projects on the Norwegian shelf in recent years, that came on stream in 2020; it will increase the recovery rate on Snorre from 46% to more than 51%.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the country will retire 9.1 GW of power generation capacity in 2021, including 5.1 GW of nuclear (56%) and 2.7 GW of coal-fired power plants (30%). More than 800 MW of oil-fired capacity, 253 MW of gas-fired capacity and a 143 MW biomass-fired power plant are also expected to retire in 2021.
According to the National Energy Administration (NEA), China’s crude oil production is expected to increase by 1.6% to over 194 Mt (3.87 mb/d) in 2020, following a jump in output from the onshore Changqing and Tarim oilfields, as well as in Bohai Bay. In addition, the country’s natural gas production should increase by 7% to 186 bcm in 2020. Earlier in December 2020, the State Council Information Office has released a white paper on the country’s energy development and major policies and measures for energy reform, which plans to lift foreign investment restriction on coal, oil, gas, power generation, and new energy businesses during the 14th five-year plan period between 2021-2025.