2019 EnerOutlook 요약은 다양한 지역 내 EnerBlue 시나리오의 주요 내용을 담고 있습니다. 2019 Eneroutlook 요약을 다운 받아보세요.
요약분을 통해 시나리오의 주요 가설에 대한 상세 정보와 2040년까지의 미래 에너지 시스템 관련 정보 및 그래프를 보실 수 있습니다.
According to the Dutch government, gas production from the Groningen gas field in the northern Netherlands could decline 20% faster than initially expected for the year starting in October 2019. In February 2019, the government announced that gas production would fall to 15.9 bcm in 2019-2020 but it had to revise this target downward to 12.8 bcm (i.e. -3.1 bcm) after a 3.4 magnitude earthquake in Groningen in May 2019. The State Supervision of Mines (SodM) of the Netherlands had advised to reduce production to 12 bcm for the 2019-2020 year, a level deemed too low by the government.
According to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), crude oil production in Canada is expected to increase by 1.27%/year until 2035. Production should increase by around 3%/year until 2021 before slowing down to +1%/year through 2035. The growth will come from Western Canada (+1.4%/year), whereas production should decline by 0.1%/year in eastern Canada. Oil sands, which account for 2/3 of the current production, will remain the primary driver for growth, despite a continuous decline in investments, due to regulatory and policy challenges: investments in oil sands is expected to decline for the fifth year in a row in 2019, from C$34bn (US$25bn) in 2014 to around C$12bn (US$9bn) in 2019. However, oil sands production is expected to surge by 46% by 2035. In the short term, oil sands production growth should average 4%/year over the 2019-2021 period.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global gas demand should continue to increase over the next five years, spurred by a dynamic demand in Asia and by the steady development of the international gas trade. Gas consumption would then rise by 10% between 2018 and 2024 (around +1.6%/year).
Nigeria's national oil and gas company Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) expects domestic gas demand in Nigeria to increase five-fold (+393%) within the next eight years. This surge in gas demand would mainly come from the power sector (additional demand of 5.7 bcf/d, i.e. nearly +59 bcm/year). Domestic supply should also increase, thanks to the "Seven Critical Gas Development Projects" (7CGDP), which would produce an additional 3.5 bcf/d (36 bcm/year) of gas in 2021. Gas supply will also be improved with the completion of the ELPS II (Escravos Lagos Pipeline System) looping and with the OB3 (Obiafu/Obrikom/Oben) project.
