According to the Smart Systems and Flexibility Plan, developed by the UK government and the UK energy regulator Ofgem, the country may need around 30 GW of total low-carbon flexible capacity s (i.e. storage, demand side response and interconnection) in 2030, and 60 GW in 2050 to integrate higher levels of renewables. The 2050 capacity could consist of 15 GW of short-term storage, 15 GW of demand side response (DSR) and 27 GW of interconnection capacity (the remaining 3 GW would come from existing pumped-storage hydropower capacity), leading to the lowest system cost.
Demand for electricity in Germany is forecasted to increase by 10% by 2030, according to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. This revision upwards from a previous forecast is due to a faster adoption of electric vehicles, with 14 million cars now expected on the road by 2030 up from a previous forecast of 10 million (+56 TWh between 2018 and 2030), the installation of about 6 million heat pumps in building (+35 TWh), the development of electricity consumed to produce hydrogen through electrolysers (+30 TWh) and the increasing demand of batteries manufacturing plants and data centres (+10 TWh).
EDF has revised upward its nuclear power generation forecast for 2020 in France, from 330-360 TWh to around 345-365 TWh (+3% to 6%). The output estimate for 2022 remains unchanged at 330-360 TWh. EDF’s nuclear output declined by 12% to just over 335 TWh in 2020. In 2019, nuclear power generation in France dipped by 3.5% to 379.5 TWh, missing its 384-388 TWh target. In 2020, it declined again (-12%) to 384 TWh, in a context of reduced electricity demand.
According to the Australian Office of the Chief Economist’s (OCE) latest Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ), global trade in thermal coal is forecast to increase from 1.025 Gt in 2020 to 1.032 Gt in 2023 (+0.7%). In March 2021, the institution planned that global thermal coal trade would increase from 1.036 Gt in 2020 to 1.101 Gt in 2023 (+6%). The downgrade is mostly due to a slower growth in thermal coal demand than previously expected in India and a faster decrease in consumption in Japan and South Korea. In addition, the OCE revised up its prediction for Chinese imports and Indonesian exports. However, forecasts for Australian, Russian and Colombian exports were cut.