EnerBase
EnerBase describes a world in which existing policies and historical trends are continued without any further climate ambition. The lack of support for GHG emission mitigation affects entire energy systems over a long period, with increasing energy demand and limited fuel diversification. This scenario leads to a temperature rise above 3°C.
EnerBlue
EnerBlue is based on the successful achievement of NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) and other national pledges for 2030, as well as a continuation of consistent efforts post 2030. Sustained growth in emerging countries is a powerful driver of global energy demand, but policies play a key role in controlling the pace of growth. This scenario leads to a global temperature rise of around 2.5°C.
EnerGreen
EnerGreen explores the implications of more stringent climate policies, with countries fulfilling or overachieving their NDC commitments and then regularly revising their emissions goals. These changes lead to significant improvements in energy efficiency and a strong deployment of renewables. In this cleaner trajectory, global temperature increase is limited to well below 2 °C.
25
Apr
The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has lowered its forecasts for the country's crude oil export prices over the 2024-2027 period to US$65/bbl. The forecasts were cut from previous estimates of US$71.3/bbl for 2024, US$70.1/bbl for 2025 and US$70/bbl for 2026.
22
Apr
The European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) has published its European LNG Market Monitoring Report (MMR). According to the report, the EU outpaced China as the largest global LNG importer in 2023, with 134 bcm of LNG imports recorded, while the United States have surpassed Qatar and Australia as the largest LNG producer, with an estimated export volume of 119 bcm in 2023. The EU’s increased demand of LNG may reach its peak during 2024 under ‘REPowerEU’ demand scenarios, at 330 bcm.
11
Apr
According to a white paper from the China Energy Storage Alliance (CNESA), China’s battery storage capacity addition is expected to slow down from 34.5 GW in 2023 to 30.1 GW in 2024 (-13%) under conservative estimates, as energy storage struggles with low profitability, cause most notably by high upfront costs. With more favourable conditions, new addition in China are forecast to increase by almost a fifth in 2024 to 41.2 GW, which remains, however, below the projected 35% global growth rate of battery storage capacity addition. China needs battery storage as a back up to integrate rising intermittent renewables capacity into power grids, in a context where gas-fired capacity is limited.
10
Apr
The local Chinese government of the Shanxi province has published the "2024 Work Plan for Stable Coal Production and Supply in Shanxi Province", proposing a slight reduction in the coal output to reach 1.3 Gt during 2024. Citing safety concerns and weak demand that caused a fall in prices, the province will voluntarily reduce 4% of its coal output from the 1.36 Gt produced in 2023. However, production is expected to increase in the coming months to reach the 1.3 Gt of coal during 2024, due to mines working under 70% of the registered production capacity because of production restrictions.
